Kerry's Pressure Visit

KERRY OFFERS MONEY FOR SYRIAN AID,

BUT WILL IT SOLVE LEBANON'S LEADERLESS DEBACLE?

                                  

(BEIRUT) US Secretary of State, John Kerry, arrived in Beirut on Wednesday with intentions of ensuring stability in a country which is anything but stable.

Amid presidential indecision in the Lebanese parliament and Tuesday's Syrian election, Kerry trip is attempting to put pressure in a place which is often overlooked between Middle East conflicts. The weight of the crisis is weighing down the country with over 1 million refugees and the UN says nearly 2,500 a day are being registered, making Lebanon the highest number per capita in the region.

Kerry said, "We cannot decide when Assad will fall, this is up to Syrian people." and stated the elections on Tuesday have "zero meaning." 

Kerry intends to offer 290 million dollars in aid for refugee support in the country, but what he fails to realize he's coming into a highly supportive pro-Assad area, more than in Turkey or Jordan, and a complicated infrastructure, both politically and economically for Lebanon.

Thousands of Tuesday's voters at the Masnaa border were eager to put in their vote for Bashar al Assad, who they say will solve their problems and bring them back home. One man said he believed the vote would propel government forces to put down the rebels and he planned to return to Damascus to rebuild his house. Another man said those ruining his country were terrorists and the US is backing the wrong side, "Our houses were destroyed and we were pushed to leave and what happened to us will happen the same for the West." His analysis is the US and Europe are propping up puppets who will turn on them and for him, Assad is the best defeat. 

Anti-Assad Refugees were scarce on Tuesday. The few who lived in small box-like houses near the border crossing stayed hidden, weren't willing to speak and afraid of being attacked if they went out. One woman, angry enough to shout said she would vote with her crutches, raising them up. Her legs amputated, a nightmare suffered from bombs in Syria, she said Assad voters should, "Go to Hell." When her rant finished, a boy came out of the house, no older than 12, raised the Syrian opposition flag and his fist shouting, "Allah Akbar" as if he'd just thrown a grenade at his enemies. Those against Assad are raging and passionate as their counterparts.

While Kerry recognized the Syrian conflict was a "catastrophe unfolding before our eyes," what Kerry seems to not understand is the the frustration for refugees is beyond Syria now.

They're flight into Lebanon has left them humiliated. Because Lebanon refuses refugee camps, people are left to slum villages on privately owned land, and while the UNHCR is often able to help with initial set up, the landowners carry rights to take it back at any time. And it's up to the Lebanese government to help create room for refugee camps, but even that has caused intense debate among both government officials and those living in the country. With no current or capable structure in Lebanon, fleeing Syrians are often left to fend for themselves, roaming illegally and if they can't get aid money and work is scarce, they become every beggar on every street corner, they are subjected to human rights abuses and easily roped into infighting with other sectarian groups.

The UNHCR is struggling to offer resources and representative Dana Suleiman has said the agency has not been receiving the donations they were before in order to help the people efficiently. Last summer the UNHCR and The World Food program conducted an assessment to determine the level of food aid they could provide for different refugees based on those with the most need and their supply. In March, a refugee woman in Tripoli set herself ablaze after she was turned away at the UN and barely survived, evidence of the refugees desperation.

As the system is now, it is creating animosity with the Lebanese people who feel over-run and government officials disagree on how to handle Syria. Hezbollah has long supported Syrian regime efforts. The Interior Minister attempted to alleviate numbers by trying to restrict voters from coming back into the country after their vote. However, Lebanese sympathizers arrived in Masnaa on Tuesday with photo-copiers and generators in hand to help pro-Assad voters make copies of their passports. The idea was they wouldn't receive a stamp-out of the country in their passports with the paper version to offer and Lebanon's security forces obliged.

To top it off, the complications in choosing a president are far beyond an easy solution in Lebanon. This is a country with a long history of sectarian leadership and sectarian rule, who after the civil war made a government coalition that only appears to work, but in actuality is a group trying to make a deals for their perspective groups. The internal politics has a dizzying effect on even the most educated citizen.

In his press conference, Kerry told reporters it was an "important period to show support" for Lebanon's government and they need a "fully empowered president" who can govern and obtain more "assistance from the international community."

Kerry's efforts, however, will not likely bring the solution he hopes.

The refugees, in Lebanon, need more than promises of Western aid; they need to know they will be able to go home. They need to feel safe, they need to have a probable winning outcome and meantime, they need to survive, have access to healthcare, education opportunities and their daily needs. The refugees experience is ever more being driven by feelings of abandonment. Western countries have not advocated on their behalf, for many of them; the West has only helped fuel the fire as the battle continues into a fourth year.

Extremists are already taking advantage of the war torn country and they're looking for new recruits, Syrians and foreigners alike who can help them achieve their goal - which is, make the West look bad and their system more appealing to those too helpless to fight any longer. Lebanon doesn't have their own conflicts contained, let alone being able to effectively contain those bleeding over the borders from Syria.

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What difference Kerry will make is yet to be seen, and chances are immediate help won't be visible. If the Lebanese government isn't willing to lead or choose a strong leader soon, the cyclical cycle will continue. No amount of money will improve it.